Mitt Romney: the relevance of valence characteristics for the 2012 general election

Mitt Romney is the leading GOP candidate for the 2012 presidential elections. His candidature is the best funded, the best organized and the most comprehensive geographically of all those who remain in the race.  My public choice assessment is that he will become the GOP candidate at the Republican Party Convention in the Summer of 2012.

My interest in this column is to evaluate Mitt Romney’s challenge to incumbent President  Barack Obama in November 2012.  At this point in time, any assessment must be tentative, but the use of a public choice framework helps a lot.

Public choice teaches that there are two relevant criteria against which campaigning politicians are evaluated: valence and salience. The criterion of valence focuses attention on the issue of personal character. Is a candidate suited or flawed in terms of perceived personal qualities for the high office that he seeks to hold?

In terms of many of the qualities that public choice research identifies as being politically relevant, Mitt Romney  fares extremely well:  he is tall; he is handsome; he is a faithful husband,; he is a good father of exceptionally gifted sons;  he is highly intelligent; he is articulate; he has top-level executive experience; he has top-level market-place experience; he is thoroughly decent; he is a good-living man.

Before the rot of the 1960s set in, Mitt Romney’s valence ratings would have been viewed as outstanding. Now, however, one must be more cautious.  Certain females have always been attracted to the loose-living, amoral kind of man. Excitement trumps safety in this  gene pool.  Similarly, certain kinds of men have always been attracted to the extreme risk-taker who defies social convention and throws the dice high. The 1960s exaggerated the value attached to such degenerate qualities.   Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich thrived politically in both these  gene pools.

November 2012, however, is going to be a sober election fought out in a badly dented economy.  Slick Willies and Naughty Newties  will not thrive in such an environment. In terms of valence characteristics,  Governor Mitt Romney and President  Barack Obama are fairly evenly matched, though I would give the edge of advantage to Romney. Romney is clearly far better qualified with respect to market-place experience. In my judgment, Romney is also the more intelligent of the two.  And these are going to be  key factors with respect to economic recovery.

In tomorrows, column, I shall focus attention on the salience criterion.

Tags: Bill Clinton, Mitt Romney; Barack Obama, Newt Gingrich, valence