When socialist bureaucrats are finally done with meddling in financial markets, turbulence is inevitable, as Vladimir Bernanke is now discovering.
Investors who do not understand the nature of a Federal Reserve-driven Treasury price bubble will have experienced severe headaches last night. Those who do not understand the herd instinct, and who hold on to their long-term bond portfolios in coming weeks, in the expectation that the bond market will recover, will wake up six months from now with more than severe headaches.
Inevitably, Bernanke’s signal that the socialist experiment is coming to an end, has hit stocks significantly, with the Dow down 4 per cent or so from its peak in May 2013. However, as long as the real economy does not take a hit – and that is to be determined – stock prices will return. Investors may hold on to their stock portfolios with a degree of confidence.
However, Treasuries are an entirely different matter. Yields on long-term Treasuries will now rise significantly, albeit with a degree of volatility, as QE3 tapers and eventually disappears. If 10-year Treasuries show yields of 5 per cent, say in one year’s time, an investor who bought say $100,000 of those Treasuries at 1.6 percent some months ago, will wake up to find that portfolio valued at $32,000. Only by holding those bonds for ten long years to maturity can such investors avoid that huge loss of capital. And if they do so, they will live in a 1.6 percent per annum yield environment while those who come after them earn 5 per cent per annum.
Suffice it to say that Vladimir Bernanke will not walk the streets safely at night when large-scale government bondholders wake up to the harm that he has wrought.