In my column dated March 27, 2010, I identified a switch in dominant political philosophy from that of Hobbes to that of Locke as a pre-requisite for victory. In itself, that is a huge task. The second task is that of preparing to implement this change in philosophy through electoral victory. This is an equally daunting task, but one that must be achieved, unless anarchy is contemplated.
In planning for electoral victory, a number of public choice issues arise. First, the vote mechanism in the United States, plurality (or first-past-the-post), lends itself to a two party system. Duverger’s Law implies that a majority in the vote tends to be exaggerated in the legislature. Third parties do badly enough in such a system. In the United States the two major parties have bult cynical barriers to successful new entry.
So free market lovers have little option, at this time, but that of converting a statist Republican Party to free markets. That is not impossible, given the huge stakes in forthcoming elections, as the Democratic Party mainstream lurches leftwards to progressive socialism, with a strong tail of Marxist extremists pushing a sympathetic President beyond the limits even of state capitalism. At such critical times, freedom lovers must reach deeply into their membership to locate leaders (think of a Ronald Reagan in 1980 or of a Newton Gingrich in 1994) capable of thinking strategically and leading the Rublican Party to a new contract with America.
And of capturing the sympathetic attention of the mass media. For the Marxist mainstream media in the United States know full well how to play on the rational ignorance and the emotional vulnerabilities of a potential electoral majority to persuade it to support policies directly detrimental to its interests.
And of shifting an electoral drift back from state capitalism to laissez-faire capitalism during difficult economic times. This requires not just political skill, but also a professional understanding of free market economics, a requirement that rules out any Republican in office anywhere at this time. The search for a potential president will have to trawl in deeper waters than is customary, even in the United States.
And of winning the election. Elections are won, for the most part, by a combination of two factors. First, candidates and parties must achieve salience (that is advertise their policy program successfully) close to the center of the distribution of voter preferences (the center may have to be calculated across more than one dimension of political space), while still energizing support from the right-hand tail of the distribution. Elections typically are won at the median, not at the tail, of the distribution. Second, the leadership (potential President most especially, but also House and Senate leadership) must have the necessary valence characteristics to attract an electorate accustomed to celebrity competition. Command of the English language, charisma, looks, integrity, as well as political and economic expertise, are all essential. Well, I do not have to tell you just how much this limits the Republican field at this barren time! Oh where are you now, Ronald Reagan or Margaret Thatcher?
The key elections are in November 2012, providing barely sufficient time to organize for battle. In the meantime, the Democratic Party appears poised to self-destruct by over-reaching, following on its unexpected victory in the battle over health care reform. Let it over-reach, is my advice, just as General Kutuzov retreated and retreated and retreated across his beloved Russia in order to lure an increasingly arrogant Emperor Napoleon into his dangerous backyard at Borodino.
Barack Obama, I assure you, is no Napoleon. The task confronting freedom lovers is far less complex. Just make sure that the Obamanian armies end up in the frozen wastes and blizzards of a late Fall debt crisis, a rising inflation rate, and a falling US dollar in 2012. Oh yes, and do pray for some real snow blizzards on election day.
Charles Rowley's Blog 